Abstract
Since the implementation of Export Tax Rebate（ETR）Policy in China during the 1950s, the objectives of ETR policy have changed gradually, from Tax Fairness, export expansion, export structural optimization to international trade balance and industrial structural optimization. Without arousing any anti-dumping proceedings, ETR can reduce the degree of trade protection in the world market and regulate total export while adjusting the development of different industries to promote the optimization of industrial structure. Its effect of industrial structural optimization has been confirmed by empirical tests. Nowadays, the world economy is facing the challenge of “rebalancing”, with trade protectionism arising and macroeconomic situation deteriorating, which have brought great pressure on Chinese industrial structure adjustment. It is predicted that ETR policy would play an important role in the Chinese industrial structural optimization.
Although 2004 Chinese government has been using differential ETR policy to optimize industrial structure, the theoretical researches on the effect of ETR' industrial structural optimization are scarce. Based on Chao's General Equilibrium Model and related International Trade model, involved capital varible and two differential ETR rates, we constructed Chinese ETR Industrial Structural Optimization Model, trying to systematically analyze Chinese ETR's different kinds of effects on export industries, ETR's synthetical effect on industrial structural optimization, and the relationship among ETR, tariff and exchange rates. Furthermore, we used Chinese data of industrial development and tech-investment based industrial structural indexes to run empirical tests. The results of theoretical analysis, model deduction and empirical tests are as follow：
（1）ETR can affect the development of export industries by influencing imported intermediate goods' price, export products'costs and profits, international market selling price, resources allocation efficiency and related industrial chains and clusters' development.
（2）Theoretical model analysis specified the effectivity of issuing different ETR rates on different industries according to industrial policy objectives to adjust national industrial structure and optimize industrial layout, which means that the effect of ETR on industrial structural optimization is significant, especially effective on low-tech industries.
（3）The results of Empirical tests show that Differential ETR policy can optimize overall industrial structure and industrial structure;can significantly reduce the scale of low processing, low-tech investment and low value-added industries; but had significant effect neither on development of higher processing, higher-tech investment and higher value-added industries, nor on reducing resource consumption in production.
（4）Higher tariff and exchange rate appreciation can strengthen ETR's industrial structural optimization effect, and vice versa.
（5）In the global economy rebalancing period, the adjustment of ETR policy in the China should be consistent with Chinese current industrial strategy in the Chinese “Twelfth Five-Year” Plan, to build a timely, reasonable, effective, differential ETR system, issuing different ETR rates on different types of industries to promote industrial structural optimization and upgrading.
There are eight chapters in this book. Chapter 1 is an introduction. Besides, the content of this paper is as follows. First, we have done literature review on ETR's industrial structural optimization Effect. Second, we have systematically sorted Chinese ETR policies since the foundation of China. Third, we have constructed a model to analyze channels of ETR's export industrial effect. Fourth, we have further developed a model of ETR's industrial structural optimization, systematically analyzing differential ETR's industrial structural optimization effect. Fifth, we have empirically analyzed ETR's industrial structural optimization effect. Sixth, we have further synthetically analyzed the relationship among ETR, tariff and exchange rate, as well as how tariff and exchange rate influence the ETR's industrial structural optimization effect. Seventh, we have discussed the prospects, problems and countermeasures of ETR in current global economy rebalancing period.
Hopefully, this research can inspire us to understand more about the effect of ETR on industrial structural optimization, perhaps to promote relevant researches, and to provide suggestions about ERT policy and industrial structural policy for related economic management departments of the Chinese government to pursue Chinese industrial structural adjustment and optimization.