中国能源经济安全风险评估(二)
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摘要:本报告从全球能源供需格局变化切入,从能源进口对中国经济福利和风险的影响,能源供需缺口对能源资源开发及投资需求,能源技术变革等方面分析了新形势、新技术、新需求对我国能源安全的影响,并基于能源资源的可得性、经济性、清洁性、可持续性等方面对中国能源经济安全状况进行了总体评估,在此基础上提出了相应的政策建议。

第一,全球能源供需格局变化对中国能源安全产生新的影响。多元供给将加大全球能源市场竞争,能源需求大国的作用将获得提升;供求格局的变化将造成能源安全形势更加复杂;全球能源变局蕴藏能源治理体制改革契机,有助于中国贡献新理念和新方案。

第二,中国经济高质量发展对能源安全提出的新要求。中国要坚持形成正确的中国能源安全观,统筹推进国际国内协同发展;深入推进能源生产和消费革命,加快构建清洁低碳安全高效的能源体系;推进全球能源治理变革,加强双边和多边能源合作机制建设。

第三,中国能源经济安全总体乐观,但油气安全仍需关注。国际油气价格过高或短期内连续大幅波动对中国能源安全的经济性影响较大,因此仍要关注中国油气的可得性、经济性、清洁性和可持续性。

第四,能源进口对提升中国经济福利具有正向作用,但需要警惕能源供应中断和价格波动风险。现阶段尤其要警惕美国能源战略和贸易战略变数给全球石油贸易格局带来的不稳定性。

第五,中国仍需要加强能源投资,保障海内外能源资源的开发可持续性。建立国内企业海外能源投资协调机制,避免国内企业在国际能源市场上恶性竞争;国家意志仍需要在能源投资方面做出调整和改进,保障海内外能源资源的开发可持续性。

第六,中国需要高度关注能源技术变革对能源安全的影响,以技术创新提升能源安全保障是未来能源安全领域的重要任务。

关键词:能源;经济安全;经济评估

Abstract:The report analyzes the supply and demand pattern shifts of the global energy system,the impact of energy imports on China's economic welfare and risks,the gap between energy supply and demand on energy resource development and investment needs,and energy technological revolution.It carried out a comprehensive assessment of China's energy and economic security situation,based on the available,affordable,clean and sustainable energy goals,and put forward corresponding policy recommendations.

1.Supply and demand pattern shifts in theglobal energy system created new challenge for China's energy security.Diversified supply will accelerate competition in the global energy market,and the importance of big energy demand country will be enhanced;Pattern shift in the supply and demand will make the energy security issue more complex;Global energy changes create new opportunities for energy governance reform,which ask for China’s contribution of innovative ideas and programs.

2.China's shift to a high-quality economic development modelgenerates new demands for energy security.China must keep a right outlook on China's energy security,coordinate the international and domestic development;Advancing the energy production and consumption revolution,and accelerating the construction of a clean,low-carbon,safe,and efficient energy system;Promoting global energy governance reform and strengthening bilateral and multilateral energy cooperation mechanisms.

3.Generally,China's energy and economic security is optimistic,but oil and gassecurity still needs attention.Overpriced international oil and gas or short-term price fluctuations in a continuous large-scale have a huge impact on the affordability of China’s energy security;therefore,we still have to pay attention to the availability,economy,cleanness and sustainability of China's oil and gas.

4.Energy import has a positive effect on improving China's economic welfare,but China must be alert to the risks of energy supply disruption and price fluctuations.Currently,China should be particularly vigilant about the instability in the global oil trade due to the US energy and strategical changes

5.China still needs to strengthen its energy investment to ensure sustainability of energy resources development at home and abroad.Establish coordination mechanisms for domestic enterprises' oversea energy investment to avoid vicious competition in the international energy market;the national will need to be adjusted and improved energy investment,to ensure the sustainability of the energy resources development domestically and abroad.

6.China needs to pay close attention to the impact of energy technological transitions on energy security,and improve energy security through technological innovation is a critical task in the future.

Key Words:Energy,Economic Security,Economic Assessment