“Seize the Day, Seize the Hour”: Building a New Type of Great Power Relations between China and the U.S.
Jia Qingguo[1]
In his speech at the welcoming banquet in Beijing in February 1972, President Nixon cited Mao Zedong to highlight the efforts he and the Chinese leader were making to achieve rapprochement between the two great countries:“Ten thousand years are too long; one should seize the day, seize the hour”(yi wannian tai jiu, zhizheng zhaoxi).Today, more than ever, this should be the spirit for Chinese and American leaders to follow in constructing a new type of great power relations between the two countries.With leaders of both countries committed to the principle of avoiding confrontation and increasing cooperation, it is high time to make greater efforts to build a truly constructive and cooperative relationship between the two countries.
1．Importance, Necessity and Urgency to Make Efforts
Now few in the world still question the importance of the relationship between China and the U.S..However, some still maintain doubts as to the utility of making efforts to tend the relationship.To them, as the rising power and the established power, China and the U.S.are destined to find themselves in confrontation and war with each other just as the rising powers and established powers invariably did in history.Therefore, there is no point for the two countries to try to develop cooperation let alone trust between the two countries.What the two countries should do is to enhance their own respective capabilities and try to outmaneuver the other side before the final showdown.
Such a view, however, is both simplistic and dangerous.In history, there were indeed cases in which the rising power and the hegemonic power ended up in confrontation and war.However, there were also cases in which they did manage to avoid confrontation and war.For instance, the U.S.and Britain did not engage in confrontation and war when the U.S.replaced Britain as the preeminent power.Nor did Japan and the U.S.or Germany and the U.S.fight after WWII when Japan and Germany reemerged as world powers.
If the rising power and the established power are not destined for confrontation and war, changes in the world since WWII have made war even more unlikely.The use of force to settle international disputes has become a much less acceptable behavior as the view of the international society evolves.Both the direct and indirect cost of war has risen sharply as the world economy becomes highly interdependent.And, given the sheer destructiveness of nuclear war, the presence of nuclear weapons has imposed strong disincentives for the nuclear weapon states to fight with one another.Against this background, it is hard to imagine that China and the U.S.would seriously contemplate war with each other.Instead, the two countries have more good reasons to work out a cooperative albeit competitive relationship than ever before.
This appears to be what has been happening so far.Despite the ideological, political and cultural differences between China and the U.S., relations between the two countries have become much closer, more comprehensive and of much greater depth than any time in history.
Dismissing historical determinism, however, is not to suggest that the two countries should be complacent about the relationship.The challenges to the relationship are immense and the potential for confrontation are real.As the rising power and the hegemonic power, China and the U.S.are still facing what Graham Allison calls the Thucydides trap.[2]According to Greek historian Thucydides, the rise of Athens and the fear of the Spartans were the primary reasons for the outbreak of the Peloponnesian War (BC431-404).Whereas the rise of Athens changed the balance of power between Athens and Spartan and made their relationship uncertain and unstable, Spartan's fear of the implications of the rise of Athens encouraged it to take preemptive measures that made the war between them more likely.If change in balance of power and hegemonic power's fear of its implications were the principal reasons for confrontation and war between the rising power and hegemonic power in history, then the rise of China and the U.S.concern about its implications may also lead to confrontation and even war between the two countries.
The situation is further complicated by the fact that, as it modernizes, China has also acquired dual identities and interests in many areas.In terms of identities, China is both a developing country and a developed one; both a poor country and a rich one; both a weak country and a strong one; and both an ordinary power and a superpower.Identity defines interests.Accordingly, China has interests of both a developing country and a developed one, of both a poor country and a rich one, of both a weak country and a strong one, and of both an ordinary power and a superpower.With dual identities and interests in many aspects, China finds it increasingly difficult to define its interests, reconcile their conflicts and maintain a coherent foreign policy.This in turn makes the outside world confused and worried, posing a serious challenge both to China and other countries as they try to gage each other's intentions.
Against such background, differences between the two countries tend to get magnified.Both traditional issues such as human rights, arms sale, Tibet and trade and new issues such as maritime disputes, government procurement, foreign investment and cyber security are increasingly viewed with frustration and alarm.Politicians find it increasingly profitable to exploit the problems for their personal political gains.As a result, people in both countries are taking a less sanguine view about the prospect of the relationship than before.[3]
Given these and other daunting challenges to the relationship, leaders of both countries cannot afford to let the relationship drift and must take necessary measures to guide the relationship in a positive direction.The stakes are high; they cannot afford to take chances；and what they do can make a difference.As China's rise continues, it becomes even more urgent for both sides to make greater efforts to ensure the relationship develop in a right direction.
2．Identify Priorities
Appreciating the importance, necessity and urgency to tend the relationship, however, is only the first step to get the relationship right.The next thing the two countries need to do is to take necessary measures to promote cooperation and trust between the countries.Since the relationship is extensive, multifaceted, and complex, and the resources the two governments can muster at any given time are always limited, one needs to identify the priorities so as to produce maximum effect.To do so, some criteria to identify priorities need to be developed.
Upon reflection, the following three criteria may be used to identify priorities in advancing relations between the two countries.The first criterion is structural effect, that is, whether those issues can fundamentally shape or move the relationship in the long run.The second criterion is urgency, that is, whether those issues require immediate attention.And the third criterion is feasibility, that is, whether those issues have a strong likelihood for the two countries to attain cooperation and produce desirable result.
If one can accept these criteria for identifying priorities, the following should be the things that the two countries should focus on.First, the two countries should focus on enhancing economic cooperation.This is an area that the two countries have engaged in close cooperation in the past and have benefited tremendously as a result.Despite all the frictions over trade, currency, intellectual property rights, and others, it remains a fact that it is in the best interest of the two countries to enhance cooperation in this area.To China, the U.S.remains a great market for Chinese exports, a major source of technologies, and a major source of foreign investment.It is also becoming a major source of imports and a major destination of China's overseas investment.To the U.S., China remains a major source of inexpensive consumer goods of reasonable quality, a major destination of overseas investment, and a major market for American exports.It is also becoming a major source of foreign investment in the U.S.and a rapidly expanding market for American exports.Because of this, economic relations between the two countries remain a strong pillar of the broader relationship between the two countries and it is an issue that has a structural effect for the relationship in the long run.There is also a strong desire on both sides to promote trade and investment between them.Therefore, it satisfies the first and third criterion for setting priorities.
Second, the two countries should focus on developing military relations between the two countries.For various reasons, the two militaries have maintained few contacts and even these limited contacts often got suspended in the past.As a result, military relations are the weakest link in the relationship between the two countries.In part because of this, militaries of both countries are among the people who have the least trust in the other country.Many have noticed the fact that some Chinese generals are very negative in their assessment of the U.S.strategic intensions toward China.Although American generals are prohibited by law to make unauthorized statements on China's strategic intensions in public, their view of China's intensions may not be much more benign.Since the militaries have an important voice in shaping their respective government's policy toward the other side, this smells trouble.This problem demands attention of the two countries.This is an issue that has a structural effect and urgency, thus satisfying both the first and second criteria for setting priorities.
Third,the two countries should focus on cyber security.Cyber security has become a major issue in the relations between the two countries in recent years.Despite the fact accusations are mainly issued from the U.S.against China[4], China probably suffers more from cyber attacks than the U.S.given the fact that China is technologically much less capable of protecting itself from cyber attacks.[5]
Cyber security is amultifaceted problem with at least four aspects to it: espionage, commercial theft, information pushing, and attacks or warfare.Espionage is a traditional practice of nation states.However, when it comes to the cyber space, it poses a new challenge in several ways.First, its target is much wider than before.As the Snowden case demonstrates, intelligence organizations are tempted to collect information not only on government but also on civilian infrastructure.[6]Second, because of this, cyber espionage is much more intrusive to the private space than traditional espionage.Third, cyber espionage blurs the line between espionage and warfare.When it comes to cyber espionage, it is a common practice for intelligence organizations to plant a trogen in the target server.The trogen can be used to collect the information on the target country.However, it can also be used to launch attacks the target country's civilian infrastructure as well as military facilities.
Theft in the cyber space is referred to those activities that are aimed at getting into the target computer systems to steal protected information.It often involves company secrets and technologies.Theft is a crime in all countries.However, when it comes to the cyber space, it has become an increasingly common practice.This is in part because it is often transnational in nature and therefore lax in law enforcement.It is also in part because, given the existing technology, it is difficult to trace the entity that conducts the theft.Despite this, theft is theft.It can cause serious harm to the target companies and disrupt normal business activities.[7]
Information pushing is referred to efforts by government or entities to spread information to a target country with a view to promote either values or views.Such a practice is not new.Before the internet age, countries tried to put information into target countries to encourage the opposition to government through radio, TV and publications.Usually, those countries with weak institutions are more vulnerable to such a practice than those with strong institutions.Therefore, the former have tried to block unwanted information from unfriendly countries.In the internet age, information can spread much more quickly and widely than before.If not properly managed, it can cause much bigger social and political unrest than before as shown in the so-called “color revolutions”of former Soviet Central Asian republics during the early years of the 21st century and “Jasmine revolutions”in the Middle East in more recent years.
Attack or war in the cyber space is referred to those computer activities that have an aim to disrupt, destroy or take control over the computer systems of the target country.It can be attacks against the target country's military facilities.It can be attacks against the target country's political command and control systems.It can also be attacks against the computer systems of the target country's civilian infrastructure such as electricity, railways, airlines and finance.Such attacks can cause extremely serious damages to the target country and constitutes a real war between countries.
The cyber security problem is a new problem confronting not only China and the U.S.but also the world as a whole.People only begin to appreciate thebreath, complexity and seriousness of the problem.As countries with vested interest in peace, order and prosperity of the world, China and the U.S.have to confront it and find ways to deal with it.Given the previous discussion, cyber security has both structural effect and urgency and therefore it satisfies the first and second criteria for setting priorities for cooperation between the two countries.
Fourthly, the two countries should focus on is North Korea nuclear problem.North Korea's persistent pursuit of nuclear weapons as well as its flamboyant behavior has posed a significant threat to the security of both China and the U.S..To the U.S., the threat is multifaceted.First, it directly threatens the U.S.military forces stationed in South Korea.Given the tension between the North Korea and South Korea, war between the two is real possibility as North Korea's bombing of the Yeonpyeong Island in November 2010 shows.If by any chance war breaks out, it may go nuclear.Second, North Korea's pursuit of nuclear weapons poses a threat to the U.S.alliance with South Korea and Japan.North Korea's nuclear program has already enhanced the argument of those who favor a nuclear option in these two countries.If North Korea's efforts go unchecked, sooner or later the U.S.is going to face a situation in which South Korea and Japan may want to go nuclear.This would put the U.S.in an extremely awkward position between defending the international nonproliferation regime and maintaining alliance with these countries.
Third, North Korea's efforts to pursue nuclear weapons may encourage countries in other regions such as Iran to pursue the nuclear option and thus undermine the international nonproliferation regime.Finally, given the near-bankruptcy state of the North Korean economy, North Korea may be tempted to export nuclear technologies, parts, and even weapons to other countries or entities to make money to sustain its nuclear program.[8]At this stage, the most likely buyers are countries and terrorist organizations hostile to the U.S..
To China, North Korea's pursuit of nuclear weapons also poses a serious threat to China's security in many ways.First, North Korea's nuclear test poses a threat to China's northeast.Given its hostile relations with the U.S.and South Korea and its geographic situation, North Korea only felt comfortable to test its nuclear device near its border with China.If by any chance its test fails, it could create an environmental disaster that affect millions of lives in the northeastern part of China.Second, North Korea development of nuclear weapons encourages South Korea and Japan to develop nuclear weapons.This increases the chance of nuclear war along Chinese borders.Third, North Korea development of nuclear weapons makes the U.S.preemptive attack against North Korea more likely.If North Korea is successful in developing long-range missiles capable of reaching the U.S., the chance for that to happen increases drastically.If such attack occurs, it is likely to bring about war in the Peninsula and create a huge refuge problem for China.
Fourth,given the economic difficulties of North Korea and the current level of international sanctions against it, North Korea is tempted to sell nuclear technologies, parts and weapons to help sustain its expensive nuclear program.As pointed out in previous passages, the most likely buyers are terrorist groups.This makes it possible for anti-China terrorist groups such as the East Turkistan Independence Movement to acquire the nuclear weapons.North Korea may not sell the weapons to anti-China terrorist groups directly; however, once the weapons are in the hands of the terrorist groups, it is difficult to control where they end up with.Finally, as Chinese go overseas and China becomes a stakeholder of the international system, China increasingly sees international nonproliferation regime in China's best interests.North Korea's development of nuclear weapons challenges the regime and thus puts China's interest in jeopardy.For these and other reasons, China is firmly opposed to North Korea's effort to develop nuclear weapons.[9]
In sum, both China and the U.S.have vested interests to stop North Korea from pursuing its nuclear weapons program.This is an area that the two countries are most likely to work together.And successful cooperation in this area can help the two countries to develop some real strategic trust.Thus, this satisfies the first, second and third criteria for setting priorities of cooperation.
Last but not the least, what the two countries can focus on cooperation is global warming.Global warming has become a serious international concern in recent years.The Obama Administration attached special importance to this issue when it came into office during the first term.Its efforts were interrupted by the global financial crisis.However, as the financial turmoil subsided, it has assumed new salience on the Administration's agenda.Like the U.S., China has also attached increasing importance to global warming.In addition to an increasing appreciation of the potential destruction climate change may bring about, China wishes to use the opportunity to seek a more sustainable way of development.This includes reduction of pollution, increase in energy efficiency, and keep up with the new trend of world economic development.Despite China's reluctance to make legally bound international commitment to reduce emission in its efforts to defend the right to development as a developing country, China has taken drastic measures to reduce emission at home and sees international cooperation on this issue increasingly in its own interest.Under the circumstances, China and the U.S.are likely to find each other partners rather than opponents on this issue.Thus, this satisfied second and the third criterion for setting priorities for cooperation between the two countries.
3．What Should be Done?
Having identified the priorities, it is time to spell out what should be done.To begin with, on economic relations, the two countries should focus on three things.The first is the U.S.restrictions on high-tech export to China.The second is government procurement policy.And the third is an investment treaty.
On the U.S.high-tech restrictions on exports to China,China has appealed to the U.S.to liberalize its policy for some time.The U.S.has responded positively in rhetoric but not much in action.It is ironic that this issue is represented in a way as if liberalization of the U.S.high-tech export to China is only in China's interest.In fact, it is also in the U.S.interest.Among other things, the U.S.can reduce its trade deficit with China.It can also help the U.S.high-tech companies to lower the unit cost of production of its high-tech products and increase the profit margin.And the U.S.high-tech companies can use the profit to maintain their technological competitiveness through financing development of a new generation of high-tech products.
The second is the two sides should make efforts to develop some reciprocal arrangement on government procurement policy.A more liberal arrangement on government procurement is in the best interest of both countries.Given the more interdependent nature of the two economies, many products and services the two governments procure are mixed in national content.For instance, you can have cars with American design, German engines, Japanese stereo system and Chinese parts and labor.Giving more companies access to government procurement would encourage competition that not only help make a better use of the limited government budget but also help domestic companies to maintain their competitiveness, a long-term good for the economy.Of course, security concerns needs to be addressed.However, that can be addressed through negotiation over necessary arrangements rather than doing nothing.
Finally, both sides should make efforts to negotiate a bilateral investment treaty.In recent years, as Chinese companies go overseas, their investment in the U.S.has drawn increasing attention.For various reasons, the U.S.has blocked business deals of Chinese companies such as CNOOC, Huawei and ZTE in the U.S.on national security grounds.Despite the fact that the U.S.has repeated its position that it welcomes Chinese investment in the U.S., how to remove the political obstacle for the two-way investment between the two countries have become an increasingly important issue for healthy development of economic relations between the two countries.Since encouraging investment is both countries' interests, something needs to be done to address this issue.A bilateral investment treaty (BIT) is clearly the answer.However, for various reasons, the preliminary attempts to get the negotiation started were not successful.Finally, following the successful summit between Xi and Obama, the two sides agreed to start the negotiation during the fifth round of the Strategic and Economic Dialogue held recently.It is hoped that the forthcoming BIT negotiation would yield results for the benefit of both countries.
In the second place,the two countries should take concrete steps to promote military to military exchanges.The U.S.should not to sell advanced weapons to Taiwan and reduce the quality and quantity of its arms sale to Taiwan in the spirit of the 1987 Communique between the two countries.China should not suspend its military to military contacts with the U.S.in protest against the U.S.arms sales to Taiwan.In addition, the two countries should make arrangements to increase exchange between the two militaries at all levels including visits, workshops and conferences, and enable officers of the two countries to study at each other's military academies.Among other things, they should exchange views on how to maintain order at regional and global levels and how the two militaries can play their role in the process.And the two sides should make arrangements to conduct more joint military exercises and joint operations to safeguard international maritime transportation routes.
In the third place,the two countries should seriously study the security threats in the cyber space.They should work together to identify and classify the threats and identify areas where they have common interests and where their interests conflict.Then they can work together to develop rules and code of conduct to protect common interests and manage conflicts.Specifically, on cyber espionage, one thing they can do is to discuss a code of conduct on the boundaries of espionage in the cyber space and guidelines as to how to use the acquired information through such activities so as to offer necessary protection of people's privacy and legitimate interests.On commercial theft, they should agree in principle not to tolerate such activities and negotiate the ways and means to stop them.On information pushing, although they may disagree as to what constitutes harmful information because of their different understanding of the principle of freedom of information, there are still things that they can agree to block such information as child pornography, racist and sexist rhetoric and terrorists' propaganda that is harmful to both countries according to the lowest denominator.Finally, they should negotiate an agreement to forego cyber attack or war against each other's military and civilian infrastructure that may result in great calamities or even war and make efforts to make it a universal code of conduct.
In the fourth place, the two countries should cooperate more closely on the North Korea nuclear issue where their common interests mostly overlap.First, they should try to encourage North Korea to come back to the negotiation table on the condition that North Korea would honor the previous commitments it assumed during previous negotiations.That means that if the six party talks resumes, it should not start from scratch again.Second, if North Korea refuses to do so, the two countries should increase pressures on it.They can convene five party talks to discuss options to compel North Korea to give up nuclear weapons.They can discuss how to react more effectively if North Korea continues its nuclear development program, including imposition of harsher sanctions and necessary military options.Finally, the two countries should begin talks on contingency plans as to what to do in case North Korea collapses.
Finally, on climate change, the two countries should make greater efforts to world efforts to combat global warming.First, they should first make greater efforts to implement the many agreements they have already signed so far in this area.Then, they should expand cooperation on development of technologies that help reduce emission and arrest the trend of global warming.Finally, they should take the lead in global efforts to address the problem of global warming.Specially, both countries should promise deeper cut in emission and urge other countries to do the same.
To sum up,given the immense challenges of the rise of China and sheer necessity to avoid confrontation and develop cooperation between China and the U.S., it is important for the relationship to move in a positive direction.For that to happen, the two countries need to identify priorities and make great efforts to advance their common interests and manage their conflicts.And they cannot afford to wait.Instead, they should adopt the spirit which Mao Zedong and Richard Nixon adhered to in 1972 when they decided on rapprochement between the two countries, that is,“seize the day and seize the hour”.
[1] Dean and professor, School of International Studies, Peking University.
[2] Graham T.Allison,“Thucydides's trap has been sprung in the Pacific”, Op-Ed, Financial Times, August 21, 2012, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5d695b5a-ead3-11e1-984b-00144feab49a.html#axzz2ZK 2JskTe.
[3] Kenneth Lieberthal and Wang Jisi, Addressing the U.S.-China Strategic Distrust, Washington: The Brookings Institution, 2012.
[4] The most recent accusation comes from House Representative Mike Rogers, Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee.He said that it was “beyond a shadow of a doubt”that the Chinese government and military is behind growing cyber attacks against the United States.http://news.yahoo.com/house-intel-chair-mike-rogers-calls-chinese-cyber-180030656-abc-news-politics.html.
[5] According to “2010 nian zhongguo qiye anquan baogao (report on Chinese business security in 2010)”, all Chinese large enterprises suffered from serious attacks from the cyber space.China Electronic Commerce Research Center,“2010 nian zhongguo qiye anquan baogao (report on Chinese business security in 2010)”, March 11, 2011, http://b2b.toocle.com/detail-5691950.html.
[6] In a press interview, Edward Snowden said that the U.S.Government “ has hacked civilian infrastructure such as universities, hospitals, and private businesses”,“Snowden defends leaks on the U.S.spy programme”, Aljazeera, June 17, 2013, http://www.aljazeera.com/news/americas/2013/06/20136172003686 365.html.
[7] According to a recent conservative estimate, cyber theft causes an annual loss of US$100 billion and as much as 580,000 jobs in the U.S.alone.http://www.zaobao.com/news/world/story20130724-231954.
[8] According to a recent news report, materials to make missiles were found in a North Korean ship on the Panama Cannel.http://www.zaobao.com/media/photo/story20130717-229257.
[9] In his telephone conversation with the U.S.Chairman of the Chiefs of Staff of the U.S.military in March 2013, Fang Fenghui, Chief of General Staff of China's People's Liberation Army said that China is firmly opposed to North Korea's nuclear test and is willing to work with other countries to persuade North Korea to abandon nuclear weapon test and development.http://news.ifeng.com/mil/2/detail_2013_04/23/24548532_0.shtml.