中国产业结构变动对经济增长的非线性影响机制

——基于面板平滑门限回归模型的实证研究^[1]

邓创 赵珂 杨婉芬^[2]

摘要：产业结构变动是经济增长的内在需求和重要动力。本文以1993～2014年中国31个省（自治区、直辖市）的面板数据作为研究样本，从产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化两个角度考察中国产业结构的变动趋势及其区域差异，并借助面板平滑门限回归模型实证研究产业结构变动对经济增长的非线性影响机制。实证结果表明，产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化对经济增长的影响均存在显著的门限效应，并分别呈现“U”形和倒“U”形两种相反的非线性特征，产业结构高级化对经济增长的“升级效应”可以有效弥补产业结构布局失衡带来的“扭曲效应”。可见，将政策调节的力度控制在合理区间、确保政策措施和市场机制的协同并行，是实现经济稳步增长和可持续发展的重要保障。

关键词：产业结构 经济增长 非线性影响 面板平滑门限回归模型

中图分类号：F224.0 文献标识码：A

The Nonlinear Influence of Industrial Structure on Economic Growth in China

——An Empirical Study Based on the PSTR Model

Deng Chuang　Zhao Ke　Yang Wanfen

Abstract：The change of industrial structure is the inherent demand and driving force for economic growth. This paper takes the panel data of 31 provinces （municipalities and autonomous regions） in China from 1993 to 2014 as the research sample，from the rationalization and optimization indexes investigates the change laws and regional differences of China's industrial structure. Furthermore，this paper empirically studies the nonlinear effect of the rationalization and optimization of industrial structure on economic growth using panel smooth threshold regression model（PSTR）. The results show that，the influence of the rationalization and optimization of industrial structure on economic growth exist a significant threshold effect and presents two opposite U-shaped nonlinear characteristic of U-shaped and inverted U-shaped. The upgrading effect of industrial structure to economic growth can effectively compensate for the“distortion effect”brought about by the imbalance of industrial structure layout. Therefore，controlling the intensity of policy adjustment in a reasonable range，and ensuring that policy measures and market mechanisms are coordinated and parallel，is an important guarantee for achieving economic growth.

Keywords：Industrial Structure　Economic Growth　Nonlinear Influence 　PSTR Model