04The Problems of Oil, of Debt and Disarray[1]
石油和债务问题造成一片混乱
导读
1983年新年伊始，就存在着一种异乎寻常的石油危机。然而，当石油舞台锣鼓声喧时，出现了各国债务这一影响更加广泛的问题。1982年中期，石油价格下跌，其后出现的信用危机，使所有拉丁美洲国家都受到影响。债务危机越出拉丁美洲的范围，蔓延到亚非国家。
The oil drama was followed by the debt bomb[2], but voters and politicians didn't want to think about the long term.
—Anthony Sampson
For world business, and even for small investors or depositors in banks, all kinds of uncertainties seemed to feed on each other over the past year. What's happening with oil? What about debts, currencies or the stability of countries?
The year 1983 began—and ended—with an unusual oil crisis: fears that the price of crude
would go not up but down[3]. OPEC looked as if it might split apart, and as the crisis deepened, it showed how oil had seeped into every corner of the world economy. Currencies moved up and down with each day's oil news, and bankers became aware of how much their loans to oil countries depended on keeping up the price. When OPEC patched up its quarrels and agreed to limit production, nobody was quite sure what was keeping up the price. What was clear was that many countries and institutions, from Britain to Mexico, from Citibank to Exxon[4], had virtually become unofficial members of OPEC, trying hard to keep the price steady.
But as the oil drama[5]played on, it began to be eclipsed by the wider problem of country debt. The near collapse of Mexico in mid-1982 had been precipitated by the falling oil price, but the crisis of credit that followed affected all Latin American countries as high interest rates and the high dollar made their repayments still more expensive. The debt crisis spread beyond Latin America into Asia and Africa. The balance of fear between countries and banks, locked in a situation in which each side could ruin the other, was beginning to seem like the commercial equivalent of the nuclear balance of terror[6]. It also gave a new dimension to the old North-South divide: would the South find that their debts would force the North to take real notice of their problems?
All these events, however geographically remote, urgently affected Western financial centers. They affected all currencies and all stock markets, and they called into question the stability of the banks. Shares were marked up or down[7]according to the news from Brasilia or Manila; shares of Exxon or Shell rose or fell depending on the news from Baghdad or Lagos. Any hint of an oil glut sent the pound down and the yen up, while bad news from anywhere tended to strengthen the dollar as the world's money haven. The quantity[8]of “hot money” exaggerated still further the swings between currencies.
The more serious bankers became especially concerned about how to bolster their foreign loans with a more secure system. Nearly all agreed at least in private, on the need to strengthen the global institutions, particularly the International Monetary Fund, if they hoped to provide the stability and the discipline that private bankers by themselves could not enforce.
But the world banking crisis coincided with a rapid upsurge of antibank feeling. The popular reaction to the debt problem, particularly in the United States[9], was to try to punish the banks for having lent money to developing countries rather than to neighborhood companies. When the Reagan Administration asked Congress to approve another $ 8 billion to help strengthen the IMF, there was an outcry of protest that required the heaviest pressure from the President to still.The hostility was part of a broader movement that reached across the Western world—a desire to focus their attention on national and local problems, at the very time when the developing nations were dramatically revealing their interdependence.[10]That situation bore an alarming resemblance to the mood of the 1930s when the world recession turned all countries inward, forcing Germany and Italy to work out their own drastic solutions, and contributing to the outbreak of World War Ⅱ.
Then came a brief surge of hope. Would the U.S. economic recovery spread around the world? Could it bring a greater demand for raw materials and more vigorous trade that would lift the debt-ridden countries off the rocks? But by the end of this harrowing year of debt, it was hard to be confident. Many developing countries were still caught in a vicious circle of contraction, and the lack of bank confidence—on which credit is based—will take more time to turn around.
Many economists and bankers insisted that only a major restructuring of the world's debts, to allow lower interest to be repaid over longer periods, could resolve the problem. But this cannot happen without the support of central banks and governments, and most voters and politicians were in no mood to think about long-term global solutions. Internationalism, which had been part of the Western creed of the 1960s, was now an increasingly suspect word. After months of the economic roller coaster, there were few signs of changing attitudes. Would a more severe world crisis in 1984 persuade nations of the need to work together, or would it terrify them into putting their necks still further into the sand?
To avert the danger of major defaults and to restore security to the economic system, Western bankers and governments will have to ensure that they are imposing reasonable repayment terms on developing countries, terms that will not provoke revolution or chaos. They will have to lower interest requirements, with some form of subsidy from the central banks if necessary. And they will have to strengthen the IMF as their ultimate safeguard.
It is not enough for the IMF and the banks to provide a financial fire brigade, moving from one debt crisis to another, The IMF must be given enough support to make longer-term loans in order to enable developing countries to revive their exports with out enduring crippling hardships. Unless Western governments face up to this challenge, they may face political catastrophes that will require far more costly intervention.
戏剧性的石油危机和爆炸性的债务问题接踵而来，但是选民和政界人士却不愿作长远考虑。
——安东尼·辛普森
对各国商界人士，甚至对小额投资人和银行存款户来说，过去的一年内，各种动荡不安的因素似乎相互推波助澜。石油的情况如何？债务、货币或者各国的稳定情况又如何？
1983年新年伊始，就存在着一种异乎寻常的石油危机：人们担心原油价格要下降，而不是要上涨。这一年结束的时候，情况依然如故。石油输出国组织看上去似乎要四分五裂，而随着危机深化，情况表明石油已经渗入世界经济的每一角落。各国货币的比价随每天的石油消息而涨落；银行家们则认识到，他们给予产油国的贷款是否能够得到偿还，在多大程度上取决于能否使石油价格保持不跌。在石油输出国组织平息内部的争吵，达成限制产量的协议时，谁也不十分清楚使石油价格保持不跌的究竟是什么力量。但是人们明白，许多国家和机构，从英国到墨西哥，从花旗银行到埃克森石油公司，实际上已经成为石油输出国组织的非正式成员，它们竭力试图保持价格稳定。
但是正当石油舞台锣鼓声喧时，出现了各国债务这一影响更加广泛的问题，相形之下，开始使它黯然失色。1982年中期，石油价格下跌，使墨西哥陷于崩溃的边缘，但是其后出现的信用危机，使所有拉丁美洲国家都受到影响，因为高利率和美元高汇价使它们偿还债务时必须耗费更多的钱。债务危机越出拉丁美洲的范围，蔓延到亚非国家。在各债务国和各大银行之间出现一种恐惧均势，它们陷入这样一种局面，一方可以毁掉另一方。在商业领域出现的这种形势，同核武器领域所存在的恐怖均势颇有类似之处。它还给原有的南北分野增添了一个新的方面，南方是否会发现他们的债务将迫使北方认真注意他们的问题呢？
所有这些事件，无论发生在地理上如何遥远的地方，都对西方金融中心产生紧迫的影响。它们影响到一切货币和一切证券市场，它们还使人们对银行的稳定性产生疑问。股票的行情随着巴西利亚或马尼拉传来的消息而升降，埃克森和壳牌两大石油公司股票的涨落取决于来自巴格达或者拉各斯的消息如何。任何石油滞销的风声都会使英镑下跌而使日元上涨，同时任何地方传来的坏消息，都会使作为世界各国货币避风港的美元更趋坚挺。大量的“追逐高利的流动资金”进一步扩大了各种货币之间比值的浮动幅度。
比较严肃的银行家特别关心如何建立一个比较稳固的体制以保障他们的对外贷款。大家至少在私下几乎一致地认为，如果他们希望建立私人银行家凭自己的力量所无法实现的稳定和纪律，就必须巩固各个国际机构，特别是国际货币基金组织。
但是不巧，在发生世界性的银行危机时，反对银行的情绪也在迅速高涨。一般人对债务问题的反应是试图惩罚这些银行，责怪它们把钱借给发展中国家，而不借给本地的公司。在美国，情况尤其如此。里根政府要求国会批准再拨80亿美元以加强国际货币基金组织，这引起一片反对声，使里根总统不得不施加最强大的压力以平息这些抗议。这种敌对情绪反映出一个遍及整个西方世界的更大范围的动向——正当发展中国家以极其引人注目的方式显示出它们同发达国家存在相互依赖关系时，西方有些人却要求把注意力集中到本国和本地区的问题上去。这种形势同20世纪30年代的情绪有令人震惊的相似之处，当时全球性的衰退使各国都把目光转向国内，迫使德国和意大利制订出它们自己的解决问题的激烈办法，促使第二次世界大战终于爆发。
后来出现了短暂的高涨时期。美国的经济复苏是否会扩展到全世界？它是否能扩大对原料的需求并促使贸易更加活跃，从而使那些债台高筑的国家摆脱困境？但是当这一折磨人的债务之年到达年关岁末时，情况很难令人心安。许多发展中国家仍然陷于经济萎缩的恶性循环中不能自拔，银行缺乏信心的状况也需更多的时间才能扭转，而信心则是信用贷款的基础。
许多经济学家和银行家坚持认为，只有对世界各国的债务进行重大调整，降低利率，延长偿还期限，这个问题才能得到解决。但是如果没有各国中央银行和政府的支持，这一点是做不到的，而多数选民和政界人士却没有心情考虑全球性的长远解决办法，国际主义在20世纪60年代曾经是西方的一项信条，现在它却是一个使人疑虑日增的字眼。在经济极端动荡不定的12个月之后，还没有多少迹象表明各方面的态度发生了变化。究竟1984年会出现什么情况？是发生一场更加严重的世界性危机，从而使各国相信必须进行合作呢，还是这种危机会使它们感到惊恐，因而把头颈更深地躲藏到沙堆里去呢？
为了防止发生重大的宣布无力偿还债务事件，并使经济体制恢复稳固，西方各国银行家和政府必须确保他们强制各发展中国家履行的还债条件公平合理，确保这些条件不至于引起革命或混乱。他们将必须降低有关利息的要求，必要时应由各国中央银行给予某种形式的津贴。他们还必须巩固国际货币基金组织，作为他们最后的保障。
国际货币基金组织的各大银行仅仅发挥金融消防队的作用，为一次又一次的债务危机而奔忙，这是不够的。必须给予国际货币基金组织充分的支持，使它能提供长期的贷款，以便使各发展中国家能够振兴出口而不遭受严重的困难。除非西方国家政府勇敢地对付这一挑战，否则他们就可能面临各地发生一次次重大的政治灾难，非进行代价高昂得多的干预不可。
翻译点评
[1] 报刊文章标题的译文，除一般的翻译要求外，还应尽可能做到：（1）简洁、醒目；（2）点出文章主旨。本文标题文字平实，但译时亦颇费踟蹰。译文未采用原文把Disarray和Oil, Debt并列的结构，而增添“造成”一词，试图点明三者的内在关系。
[2] 文章提要中，作者使用了drama和bomb两个形象化的词语，想来是为了多少解除一些论述经济问题文字的枯燥气氛。译文中没有保留形象化的表达方法，而是采用了描述性的词语，这是因为文字上不好安排。如bomb一词，这里只是指债务问题的“潜在”破坏性，如译为“炸弹”，不易确切引出这方面的含义。使用“爆炸性”一词，文字的生动鲜明性受些损失，但含义比较确切。
[3] 本句包含两个并列的谓语动词词组：began with和ended with。译文采用了拆句的方法处理。这是为了使宾语“异乎寻常的石油危机”和它的同位语短语尽量靠近。其他可能的处理方法，似乎也必须照顾到这一点。
[4] Citibank的全称为First National City Bank of New York，习惯译为“美国花旗银行”，现在也有译为“纽约第一国民银行”的。Exxon是美国著名石油公司，在国外该公司多用ESSO这个名称。其前身为Standard Oil of New Jersey，习惯译为“新泽西美孚石油公司”，居世界七大垄断石油公司“七姊妹”之首。
[5] 这里the oil drama的译文保留了形象化的表达，一是由于文字安排容许，其次还因为它同本文提要相呼应，是重点文字。由它引出使国际金融市场波澜迭起的各国外债问题。
[6] the nuclear balance of terror：西方存在一种理论，认为由于美苏两个超级大国拥有的核武器实力基本相当，任何一方都无法期望在核战争中摧毁对方而自己不遭到致命报复。这种对核报复的恐惧心理，使双方都不敢轻率发动核战争，形成所谓“恐怖均势”。西方新闻记者喜欢创造新词新语，the balance of fear一语反映出这种爱好。本文作者在他所著的The Seven Sisters一书中曾使用Shellocracy一词指“壳牌石油公司”上层领导集团，也是他的创造， Anthony Sampson曾长期在英国《观察家报》编辑部工作，后任该报驻华盛顿记者。The balance of fear一语的译文，参考了“核恐怖均势”这一惯译。
[7] Shares were marked up and down：译文使用了大家熟知的词性转换的方法。Shell：英荷资本为主的一家石油公司，“七姊妹”之一。
[8] 这里the quantity一语本身就有“数量大”的意思，译文需要点出。类似的有size, amount等。这一句谈的是大量流动资金在国际货币市场上进行投机活动，兴风作浪。
[9] particularly in the United States这个短语似以拆句处理为好。
[10] a desire..．这个名词短语相当长，而且它本身又包含一个不短的状语短语，若按照原文结构译为名词短语，势必显得累赘。译文加一个主语“西方有些人……”，形成“动宾”结构，使句子形式上较为松散，各部分较为平衡。符合汉语习惯。
（马德麟译注）
Translation Practices
翻译练习
But as the oil drama played on, it began to be eclipsed by the wider problem of country debt. The near collapse of Mexico in mid-1982 had been precipitated by the falling oil price, but the crisis of credit that followed affected all Latin American countries as high interest rates and the high dollar made their repayments still more expensive. The debt crisis spread beyond Latin America into Asia and Africa. The balance of fear between countries and banks, locked in a situation in which each side could ruin the other, was beginning to seem like the commercial equivalent of the nuclear balance of terror.
Key
但是正当石油舞台锣鼓声喧时，出现了各国债务这一影响更加广泛的问题，相形之下，开始使它黯然失色。1982年中期，石油价格下跌，使墨西哥陷于崩溃的边缘，但是其后出现的信用危机，使所有拉丁美洲国家都受到影响，因为高利率和美元高汇价使它们偿还债务时必须耗费更多的钱。债务危机越出拉丁美洲的范围，蔓延到亚非国家。在各债务国和各大银行之间出现一种恐惧均势，它们陷入这样一种局面，一方可以毁掉另一方。在商业领域出现的这种形势，同核武器领域所存在的恐怖均势颇有类似之处。
Emulation
美文自己写得出——学生仿写
仿写范例
Respect
Have you considered whether there is someone who deserves your respect? Has it occurred to you why you show respect to him? Has it dawned on you what qualities a respectable person should have? According to Angel Nieto, a person who loves and fights can win her respect. But for me, it is eruditeness, perseverance and sense of responsibility that account for much of a person who is worthy of respect.
First things first, I respect those who are knowledgeable. We are now living in the age of information and knowledge and so being information-poor can be a problem. The 21st century is an era that attaches great importance to knowledge. Only those who are intensive in a specialized area and also have such knowledge as philosophy, art and religion are likely to earn credits from others.
Secondly, persons with the spirit of perseverance deserve my respect. Perseverance is not that you can see the results of your work immediately but that you build your castle one brick at a time bravely and intrepidly. A case in point is Yang Wei, the Chinese prince of gymnastics. Relatively “no longer young” judged by the standard of gymnastics and a long-term affliction of injuries don't daunt him. On the contrary he still insists on taking exercise and training every day. In due course in 2008 Beijing Olympic Games Yang Wei won gold in the individual all-round as well as the respect of the world.
Last but not least, if a person is responsible for what he shoulders, I will look up to him. Take Tan Qianqiu, an elementary school teacher who lost his life in the tragic Wenchuan earthquake for example. When the rescue team found his body, people noticed that he was still protecting four pupils under his body. As a teacher, Tan chose to be responsible for his students and he also chose to protect them at the sacrifice of his own life. So isn't this person worth the respect of the whole Chinese nation? Shouldn't this person be remembered? The answer is obvious and thousands of candles in the hands of some 20,000 students, colleagues and villagers at his funeral prove this.
To sum up, there may be dozens of qualities one must have to earn respect but the essential ones are only a few. And for my part, those who have a wide range of knowledge, the spirit of perseverance and the sense of responsibility can have my respect.