PART ONE
FOUNDATIONS OF SCENARIO PLANNING
CHAPTERS
1 Introduction to Performance-Based Scenario Planning
2 Theoretical Foundations of Scenario Planning
3 The Performance-Based Scenario System
IF WE LOOK BACK over the history of planning in organizations, we can see a fundamental illusion that is beginning to come to light. The illusion is that planning can function like a machine, that the steps of organizational planning need only be carried out. The basis of that illusion is an assumption that things more or less stay the same. Today, our rhetoric would indicate we have realized our erroneous assumption, but actions indicate otherwise. The world is changing faster than ever, yet many planners and decision makers behave in opposition to what they know is true about the world—they seek the answer, as if there is only one correct answer and their job is to find it.
A key premise of this book is that things are ever-changing. Planning therefore needs to take a different approach, one that assumes tomorrow’s world will be fundamentally different from today’s. Scenario planning explores a variety of outcomes, a variety of potential answers, and uses them to create awareness and readiness. The hardest part of scenario planning is recognizing our desperate clinging to a single answer and consciously shifting toward an open future of vast potential—both positive and negative. This book asks its readers to take a journey. To interact with their environment. To ask difficult questions that lead to more difficult questions. To become comfortable with ambiguity.
Part One consists of Chapters 1 through 4. These chapters provide a working knowledge of scenario planning.
Chapter 1, “Introduction to Performance-Based Scenario Planning,” establishes the nature of the business environment, describes why traditional approaches to strategy are no longer effective, and lays out the development of scenario planning as a major evolution in planning under uncertain conditions. This is an extensive chapter that provides a comprehensive background of the need for scenario planning, and the critical breakdowns of existing approaches to scenario planning. Unlike existing approaches, performance-based scenario planning provokes conversations about expectations, delivers a variety of options for putting scenarios to use, and makes assessment a required part of the project.
Chapter 2, “Theoretical Foundations of Performance-Based Scenario Planning,” presents the major disciplines that form the theoretical basis for scenario planning. This chapter examines the connections between scenario planning and learning theory, mental model theory, decision-making theory, and performance improvement theory, among others. This chapter is a comprehensive treatment of the knowledge required for effective scenario planning. While not required for immediate application, this chapter reveals many nuances about what scenario planning is and how it works.
Chapter 3, “The Performance-Based Scenario System,” situates scenario planning within the organization. Drawing on system theory concepts, this chapter generally outlines the position of scenario planning as a subsystem in organizations. This chapter also presents the performance-based scenario system, which is the focus of Part Two.
Finally, Chapter 4, the “Scenario Case Study,” presents a short description of a real organization (disguised for the purposes of confidentiality). The case illustrates the phases of the performance-based scenario system described throughout Part Two.