美联储加息可能性很大　The Federal Reserve Probably Raises Interest Rates

News Background

新闻导读

美国联邦储备系统（The Federal Reserve System或Federal Reserve），简称美联储，负责履行美国的中央银行的职责。这个系统是根据《联邦储备法》（Federal Reserve Act）于1914年11月16日成立的。联邦储备系统由位于华盛顿特区的联邦储备委员会和12家分布在全国主要城市的地区性的联邦储备银行组成。珍妮特·耶伦为现任美联储最高长官。作为美国的中央银行，美联储从美国国会获得权力，行使制定货币政策和对美国金融机构进行监管等职责。美联储通过公开市场操作来影响联邦基金利率。公开市场操作是指美联储通过买卖债券向市场投放或者收回货币的行为。公开市场委员会设定联邦基金利率目标后，美联储通过公开市场操作改变市场上货币的发行量，实现预先设定的目标利率。例如，目前市场上的联邦基金利率是2.5%，而公开市场委员会决定把利率提高到2.75%。为实现这个目标，美联储在公开市场上卖出债券，收回货币。这时金融机构持有的货币减少，超额储备金降低，银行间储备金的贷款利率上升。

News Transcript

新闻正文

Until the recent stock turmoil triggered by the slowdown in China, many expected a September rate hike. But uncertainty over global economic growth muddied the waters.Even job numbers showing U.S.unemployment at a seven-year low have not eased concerns, says Bankrate.com's Mark Hamrick on Skype.“This August jobs report neither flashes a green light for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, nor does it fash a red light.Meaning, that it is still in this caution zone.”

The caution refects the Fed's dual mandate, full employment and stable prices. Hiking rates too soon could spark defation and its ripple effects says Joseph Minarik, head of research at the Committee for Economic Development.“If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates too quickly and too much and deters demand, particularly for major purchases in the economy, the result can be a cascading reduction-starting with consumer demand, going on to employment.”

The International Monetary Fund urges the Fed to wait until at least next year. IMF William Murray：We continue to believe that the Federal Reserve can afford to hold interest rates low until there are more tangible signs of wage or price inflation.But delay also carries risks.Among them, few policy options when the U.S.economy hits another downturn says Joe Brusuelas, a financial consulting firm McGladrey.“The Fed needs, before this business cycle ends, to get the Federal Funds rate somewhere at or above 200 basis points（2 percent），so when the inevitable recession comes, they can have frepower.”

But the Fed is keeping all options open. That's a worry for a market that likes certainty, says Maria Fiorini Ramirez at consulting frm MFR.“We've all been on pins and needles in terms of when they're going to do it，”she said.“So either they should say that because of weaker growth and all the other reasons that they eloquently discuss, say that‘we're not going to do anything'or just do it and say：‘this is it fornow.’”Anyone seeking clarity will have to wait.No announcement is expected until after members of the Federal Open Market Committee meet September 16 and 17.

Translaton

参考译文

由于中国经济放缓导致全球股市震动，业内人士预测9月将上调利率。然而，却被全球经济增长的不稳定性搅了局。Bankrate公司专家马克·哈姆里克在Skype上称，尽管美国失业人口达到了7年以来的最低值，但这并没有缓解人们对它的担心程度。“8月份的就业报告既没有让联邦储蓄为增加利率而亮绿灯，也没有亮红灯。这意味着它仍然处在警戒状态中。”

这种担心反映了联邦储蓄的“双重使命”，稳定价格以及实现全面就业。经济发展委员会研究主管约瑟夫·米纳里克表示，过早加息可能导致通货膨胀等一系列连锁反应。“如果美国联邦储备委员会过快提高利率，并抑制需求，特别是大宗采购，那么结果可能是一连串的削减——从消费者需求开始，到就业市场。”

国际货币基金组织敦促联邦储蓄要至少等到明年才可以上调利率。国际货币基金组织发言人威廉·穆雷称：我们依旧相信在工资膨胀或价格膨胀出现迹象之前，联邦储蓄能够保持低利率。但是，这样做也存在风险。McGladrey财务咨询公司首席经济学家乔·布鲁塞拉斯称，如果美国经济再遇低迷，那么相应的政策选择将少之又少。“在此次商业周期结束之前，联邦储蓄需要将联邦基金保持在200基点或以上的范围（2%），所以，当不可避免的经济衰退到来时，它们将提供支持。”

MFR咨询公司的玛丽亚·菲奥里尼·拉米雷兹称，但是联邦储蓄依旧拥有如此多的选择。那么，这对于喜欢稳定的经济市场来说前景担忧。她说：“关于他们何时采取行动，我们总会坐立不安。所以，他们要么会因为经济疲软和所有其他所讨论的原因，说‘我们不打算采取措施’。要么会立即行动后说‘现在只能这样’。”所有人都在等待事情明了化。9月16日至17日，联邦公开市场委员会委员将召开会议，在这之前或将不会发表任何声明。

Listening Comprehension

听力理解

1.Until the recent stock turmoil____by the slowdown in China, many expected a September rate hike.

2.We continue to believe that the Federal Reserve can afford____hold interest rates low until there are more tangible signs of wage or price infation.

A. to

B. on

C. of

3.What's the worry for a market that likes certainty according to Maria Fiorini Ramirez?

Hot Words

新闻热词

stock[stɒk]]n.股票，证券

turmoil[ˈtɜːmɔɪl]n.动荡，恐慌

slowdown[ˈsləʊdaʊn]n.放慢，放缓

muddy[ˈmʌdi]v.使更为复杂，使难以理解

fash[fæʃ]v.使闪光，使闪耀

mandate[ˈmændeɪt]v.授权，委任

defation[ˌdiːˈfeɪʃn]n.通货紧缩

deter[dɪˈtɜː（r）]v.阻止，制止

purchase[ˈpɜːtʃəs]v.购买；采购

reduction[rɪˈdʌkʃn]n.减少；降低

tangible[ˈtændʒəbl]adj.真实的，实际的

infation[ɪnˈfeɪʃn]n.通货膨胀

policy[ˈpɒləsi]n.政策，方针

inevitable[ɪnˈevɪtəbl]adj.不可避免的；必然发生的

eloquently[ˈeləkwəntli]adv.善辩地，有说服力地

clarity[ˈklærəti]n.清楚，明晰

announcement[əˈnaʊnsmənt]n.通告，宣告

Listening Analysis

精彩解析

1.But uncertainty over global economic growth muddied the waters.

muddy the waters把水搅浑，把事情弄糟

例句

You are not going to muddy the waters this time.

你这次不要搅这趟浑水吧。

Lucy always muddies the waters and the whole team doesn't like her.

露西总是把事情弄得很糟，整个团队都不喜欢她。

2.We've all been on pins and needles in terms of when they're going to do it.

on pins and needles坐立不安，如坐针毡

例句

On hearing the news, she was on pins and needles.

听到这个消息，她坐立不安。

He was on pins and needles at the news of the fall of the corrupt offcial.

一听到贪官落马的消息，他就如坐针毡。

答案

1.triggered

2.A

3.The Fed is keeping all options open.