Building a Community of Common Destiny:The Choice for the West is Either “Staying the Course” or Undertakes “Course Correction”
Ambassador (Retired) of the Foreign Service of Pakistan;
Director, Chinese Studies Centre, National University of Science and Technology, Pakistan
Everything that appeared normal, just at the beginning of the 21stCentury, is under “retreat”, moving backwards. Politicians in the West are talking of building “Walls” instead of “Bridges”. The values of political liberalism, multiculturalism, open markets, free enterprise, globalization, freedom of speech, and human rights championed by the Western nations for more than a century have come increasingly under pressure from the forces of hate, bigotry, intolerance, extremism, racism, xenophobia, protectionism, nationalism and blind pursuit of “domination” by the former Colonial and Imperial Powers. The world is no more fl at, but being built with fortresses.
The Post-Cold War era world is in disarray, with the decline of what was called “Hyper Power” i.e. the United States of America. Initially it appeared as though, the United States which was called “the hyper power” by an exuberant media in 1991, would sustain its position for some time. Today, a quarter of a century after, that appears highly unlikely to even the most ardent, qualifi ed and credible pro-American strategic analysts. The rest of the world has been instead condemned to hope by those, who should have instead provided “solutions”. The protracted struggle for geo-political domination, building of so-called coalitions and alliances, and resumption of Cold War language and mindset are “bad omens” for the world's future.
The Western mainstream media, however, have not changed their “tone” or “imperialistic mindset” knowing very well though, which time has changed from the Cold War days 1945-1991. Ironically, in recent months it has come “under siege” by the very Right Wing forces which has nurtured for decades. On the political level, there has never been such a lack of global leadership, as the dawn of the 21stCentury is witnessing. The West cannot reverse the clock of history. The new rules of the game in Asia will be more and more written by the Chinese. The fact that China was never totally under colonial rule, except the coastal cities usurped under the unequal treaties with a feeble and weak Qing Dynasty, which does not share many values with the West. Chinese have, however, benefited enormously from the western knowledge and technology in the recent years following the policy of reform and opening-up since the early 1980s.
As China gains strength and confidence, its global role will also undergo transformation in line with its strategic interests, as it indeed is visible already in the sophistications of its diplomatic initiatives and strategic moves. For the rest of the world it becomes even more important to read through these postures of “strategic communication”. Across Asia, China is seen as the stabilizer, seeking a peaceful rise. The Western nations are not reconciled to China's rise, as it is reflected in the annual Opinion Surveys conducted by the PEW, Washington. One thing is certain, the rules of the game will need to be redrafted. The West will never understand China for a number of reasons, DNA aside. The Western media are full of negative stories on China day in and day out refl ecting the deep frustrations within the Western intelligentsia. It is, however, amazing that none of the prognosis of the Western Sinologists over the past decades has ever turned out to be true.
The global society is coming under all sorts of challenges. The Western thinkers saw the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 as the achievement of the so-called “Nirvana” by them. Now, a quarter of century later, the West, including America itself is confronted with the specter of an irreversible decline. Prominent Western scholars including Dr. Zbigniew Brzeznski, Paul Krugman, Thomas L. Friedman, Samuel Huntington, Roger Cohen, Tom Engelhardt, Javier Solana, Strobe Talbott, Richard Hass, Peter Hartcher, etc., know that there is in no way this process can be checked. What the Western intellectual elite should be debating as to what caused their decline instead what they are discussing is whether “the Chinese can provide the alternate leadership”.
“No country, however powerful will enjoy everlasting domination, peace or prosperity. From ancient times until today this recurring theme has not changed at all.” (Ancient Chinese Metaphor)
Throughout history, Empires have come and gone, and so have been the superpowers. The world is indeed living through an Era of New Normal and the interesting times, if not a chaotic era. The contemporary global situation was described by US President Barack Obama as the “Era of New Normal”. That is an understatement. To put it simply, it could be termed as an “age of disorder and chaos”. No great power in history ever relinquished its influence and domination willingly, more so if it was a superpower. It was always prepared to give a fight, like it happens daily in the jungle kingdom. Every existing power becomes, however, a “status quo” power and subsequently, a declining power. All superpowers though, pass through a period of youthful adolescence towards zenith of power and infl uence into a plateau phase and eventually into a declining trajectory to become history.
Nature ensures rotation, with or without confl ict to ensure the sustainability of human civilization. Old gives in to new. Weak makes a place for the strong of the “human family” to continue its generational sustainability. The succeeding power may not have to fi ght to win. Nature brings it about in a number of ways that even the strongest of empires, powers and individuals in the world history, have to bow down in front of it. The fall of the European Colonial Empires, the breakup of the Soviet Union, the decline of America and the rise of the People's Republic of China are just a few recent examples in the contemporary times.
The clamor for freedom, human rights or democracy supported by the West does not move the “hearts and minds” of Afro-Asian-Latin American masses, any more. The world is now haunted by the cries and sufferings of all those millions who perished, or continue to suffer at the hands of the Western Powers or their proxies, now exceeding the casualties suffered in the Second World War. The proponents of Shock Therapy, Creative Destruction, Star Wars, Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), Double Standards, Selective justice and geo-political domination have destroyed any remaining semblance of sanity, tolerance, coexistence, love, understanding, growth, balance and harmony. They are now themselves the victims of their own making. There are now, however, two undeniable facts. Nobody will win in a nuclear conflict and no one has ever succeeded fighting the world. For instance, the Russians wrongly or rightly believe that there is no justifi cation for the continued existence of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), when the Soviet military threat does not exist anymore.
Further, Chinese feel that there is no need for another round of Cold War, or a replay of the Containment doctrine, and this time aims at thwarting the peaceful rise of China by playing on the historical animosities and opportunistic ambitions of regional powers in Asia. Despite this, even in the most pro-American Asian states, in Catholic Philippines, hatred of Americans runs high. Philippines Presidential and the former Mayor of Davao city Rodrigo Duterte know it all. The episode relates to the case of an American Michael Terrence Meiring who was charged with possession of explosives but managed to fl ee the Philippines. He joked about being with the CIA, meaning “Christ in Action”. (Source: International New York Times, Front Page. Monday, 16th May, 2016).
In a sign of Interesting times, America's CIA leaked reports to the press on 9th December that Russia interfered with the Presidential Elections in the United States in November, 2016 and wished to see President Donald Trump in Offi ce. This was sharply denied by President-elect who termed it “ridiculous”. This refl ected not only deeper fi ssures but a loss of direction in America which had itself taken pride in interfering in elections globally and stirring so-called “Colour Revolutions”. Irrespective of the fact that the allegations are credible or not, it shows the hard fact that “America” is not invincible. If things continue to deteriorate there at the current speed even Colour Revolutions in reverse could not be ruled out. The return of battle hardened military men and women from Afghanistan and Iraq, have already done their part of damage in the rising homicide and other crime rates.
What is in fact a tragedy is that despite thousands of years of human evolution and improvements brought about by explosion in knowledge and technology, human societies have as a whole, degenerated and have never faced more the risks of annihilation or extermination before, as much as to-day. No power has ever succeeded in maintaining its domination for long. Nor has it succeeded fighting simultaneously the rest of the world. Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union and their allies are a few recent examples. The West is now in a similar quandary. A global nuclear confl ict will most likely leave no winners.
The world has become, now as a result of a number of reasons, a far more “dangerous place” as compared to 1945, when the Second World War ended and the UN was established. The world is neither peaceful nor secure or any better now, than it was during the Cold War until 1991, when the other superpower i.e. the former Soviet Union providing somewhat sustainability to the “equilibrium in a bi-polar world” collapsed. The world is in a “spin” ever since. The historians, geo-strategists or opportunists continue to perpetuate the myth of invincibility of their power in all times driven by self-interests, myopic understanding, righteousness and egoistic compulsions. By perpetuating an unjust and unequal world economic order for decades, the Western Powers benefi ted enormously from the “Brain drain” and the “Capital fl ight” from the other societies. The Trans-Atlantic Powers used the template of “Coalitions building” and so-called “Humanitarian Missions” to wage wars and promote conflicts both through “proxies and direct intervention”, in order to maintain their global domination for as long as possible.
This strategy is now rendered irrelevant by the fast transformation of the global situation. Powers on way to dissolution suffer from certain “symptoms”. Wars, Civil disorders, violence, confl icts, xenophobia, riots, arrogance and above all a “delusion” that could all mean a cause or effect, i.e the beginning of the end or the end of the beginning. The above stated natural paradox of power game of stability or disorder does not, however, follow each other neatly. This is as true for big powers, as for middle and small powers. Statecraft has the basic function to generate the necessary harmony, manage disruptions or engage in damage limitations as far as possible. We live in an era of “Cold Peace”.
In many respects, the year 2016 was a watershed. The West in general and America in particular have apparently run out of ideas. They have no counter narrative to “win-win template” known as the Belt and Road Initiative aimed towards building a Community of Common Destiny by closer regional integration of Asia, Europe, Africa and Latin America. The Chinese revival of ancient Silk Road by building the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21stCentury Maritime Silk Road will establish connectivity between China and the rest of the world. This is indeed a powerful branding. The human soul is always restless, yearning for change.
A scientific view of history based on perceptions of political, economic, scientific and security cannot exclude circular movements, nor can it rule out cyclical possibilities. Historical processes could also be angular, triangular, tidal, linear, non-linear, hyperbolic, etc., politics, economics, information, strategy, technology, diplomacy, military, demography and climate all act, interact and counteract in a certain predetermined way, under the Creator's grand scheme of things to evolve or dissolve a dominant power in a certain period of historical time scale. The 21stcentury belongs to the Chinese as the 20th century belonged to the Americans, 19th century to the Europeans. The Indians have no place in the future chessboard, despite their delusion. They have as usual chosen to be on the wrong side of history.
Why do great powers rise, stagnate and fall? Great powers rise, driven by powerful historical forces, shaped by a mere coincidence, or constellation of factors (stars) that prove game changer “valuable assets”. These factors could be individuals, men and women, ideas, values, leadership, systems, economy, technology, inventions, natural resources, military powers, cultural appeal, social stability, moral strength, divinity and nature's blessings. All these elements play their roles alone or in combination with each other to make or unmake any nation, empire or civilization. The end of Cold War in 1991 with the dissolution of the Soviet totalitarian state, generated somewhat a premature sense of “euphoria and exuberance” of the victory for the West, for those knowing very little about the “undercurrents” in the global society. An American Japanese author Francis Fujiyama described it as “The end of History and the Last Man”, appealing to the mainstream Western political thought process. His thesis was that the mankind had achieved “Nirvana” by the so-called victory of Ne liberalism, democracy and human rights over the Soviet Model. A quarter of century later, in another of his book he contradicts his own earlier conclusions. The reality of human relationships and social evolution are far too complex. What is an established fact is that we are left with no “certainty” on the shape of things to come.
The West confronts the challenges of absence of social capital, demographic decline, political dys-functionality, the rising income inequality, endless wars, and closing gap in technology and the challenges from the low cost producers of and Asia. These have been accentuated as the forces of globalization, automation, modernization and indigenization take grip of human society creating transformative impact beyond anything they had seen. The success of liberal democratic model and free enterprise societies are dependent on rule of law, merit, full employment and a sizeable middle class. The Western societies are being decimated by their own actions and inactions, leaving them vulnerable and in protracted decline, resulting in increase in xenophobia. The chickens are coming home to roost everywhere. Every society is becoming a victim of its own actions, inactions or reactions.
Though dissatisfi ed with the existing global governance and structures China will neither challenge, nor seek to change the situation in a revolutionary or radical way, which alters the existing fragile status quo. In other words, it would not rock the boat. It will, however, create alternate structures and governance forms, try and test them over time, before fl oating them as the substitute for the existing impotent structures and inept global governance. The present generation of China's leadership is the inheritor of rich historical and cultural heritage. China has gained eminence, infl uence and power not due to any courtesy of the “West's act of Charity or Benevolence”, but by its own superior cultural value, understanding of political undercurrents, Leadership qualities of its senior cadres and the civil servants, tenacity, resilience, determination and patience of its population. China is still in the initial stage of its rise. For most China watchers and sinologists it is however hard to believe the distance it has covered in such a short period.
Where does the Western world go from here? Should it continue to “stay the course” of the new breed of Right Extremist thought process ending up with new “era of Fascism” or undertaking the much needed “Course correction”that restores sanity and harmony in the world. The question is of existential importance not only for the Western societies, but for the entire humanity. The discredited “Cold war” template of “Containment Theory”, this time aimed at China, cannot be resurrected. China is indeed providing the subtle lead towards building a new global order devoid of hatred, intolerance, inequality,xenophobia, violence, conflict and wars. China's rise is unique as there is no example of a Great Power during the past fi ve thousand years of human history, having risen on the strength of its values, without conflict and wars. China's “win-win Diplomatic Paradigm” of the Belt and Road Initiative aims to build a Community of Common Destiny for mankind by integrating the Euro-Asiatic Regions with Africa and Americas by reviving the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21stCentury Maritime Silk Road. The Chinese Paradigm is based on its centuries old cultural tradition of having a “prosperous neighborhood for sustaining its own prosperity”. The Western intelligentsia laments that it has no powerful “Counter Narrative” to it, other than parroting “China threat theory” or “China containment theory” of the discredited Cold War days. The world stays at the crossroad.