第15章 非洲，日新月异，展望未来(1)
AFRICA-The Changing Face；The Face of the Future演讲人：Donald Kaberuka 唐纳德·卡贝鲁卡
Thank you Dean McCarthy for this invitation，an honor for me and the African Development Bank.My appreciation also to Professor Calestous Juma，Bridge Builders Conference Organizers and Participants，Members of the African Caucus，Faculty，Students，Friends and Guests of the Kennedy School.
I am proud to join you at this institution whose mission is to inspire and encourage young people to serve in Government and to be the bridges between academ ia a nd t he la rger world -a m ission wel l accomplished.At the African Development Bank a number of the Alumni of the Kennedy School and Harvard are serving with devotion and distinction.
I am particularly glad to speak at this important event-the Bridge Builders Conference-and to meet with young leaders from different countries who are here to share their experience，in the social economic development of their communities and in domains as varied as microfinance，gender and HIV/Aids.The work you do empowering communities around the world is truly inspirational.You have asked me to speak about the role of leadership in facing challenges of development in Africa.I am glad to do so in the strong belief that no durable development is possible without a strong accountable leadership at all levels of society.
As I was preparing for this event，the words of a great American Statesman kept crossing my mind，these will be familiar to you.But let me quote：
"The world is very different now，for man holds in his mortal hands the power to abolish all forms of human poverty and all forms of human life."
He went on：
"To those people in the huts and villages of half the globe struggling to break the bonds of mass misery we pledge our best efforts to help them help themselves…because it is right…"
This，you will not be surprised was the great statesman after whom this prestigious school is named John F.Kennedy at his inauguration.
Over four decades later，the world is indeed a very different place.Unprecedented global prosperity.Across the world great strides have been made in fighting poverty，in Asia，in Latin America，and indeed parts of Africa.But today，despite this remarkable feat there remains millions of people-in huts and villages-still bound by misery，hunger，and deprivation.But there is a difference.Their faces will be indeed from parts of Asia and Latin America，but inevitably those faces will be African.This is a familiar story.
Today，I am here not to repeat or recast this familiar narrative but to share with you a story-of hope and optimism-a story of Africa on the move.A story of a continent whose policy changes，improved governance and management has enabled it to take advantage of favorable international market developments-the strong demand for its commodities-and favorable international initiatives such as comprehensive debt relief.
While there remains pockets of instability and arbitrary rule，the democratic change is becoming the norm，and African led efforts continue to reduce the scope and duration of conflicts.As a result，Africa-generically speaking -is experiencing the longest period of growth since 50years.The proportion of the population living in poverty is not falling fast enough but it is not increasing either.In spite of turmoil in the world markets and other uncertainties，I still expect our economic growth to be at 6.5%in 2008.
To illustrate this stor y，consider the case of the poorest parts of Africa the Sub-Sahara African Region.With the exception of one country，I expect macroeconomic conditions to remain benign，inflation contained in single digits，fiscal deficits in check，and the business climate to steadily improve.Foreign reserves will be at an all time high，137billion dollars，while external debt at 11%of GDP will be at a 30year low.The comprehensive debt cancellation of 2005has ignited unprecedented private investment flows totaling 22billion dollars last year.As expected，most of the flows went into natural resources rich countries but we estimate that about 20%about 4.5billion dollars would have been attracted to resources poor countries but with stable systems，strong predictable policies，which are well governed and secure.But we also estimate that probably another 1.2billion dollars would have gone to some of the poorest landlocked resources poor countries.I have said nothing of the capital flight which is being reversed into significant levels of remittances perhaps closer to 17billion dollars a year.
The issue for many I guess，would be how to reconcile this story of hope and optimism with pervasive poverty，misery and instability on the continent.Indeed，there are wide discrepancies between and within countries；there are many laggards whose fortunes have not changed significantly.Put simply，not only do many countries start from a very low base including for several of them years of violent conf licts but population is growing and new challenges such as the impact of climate change and urbanization have emerged.These are obstacles which Africa and its leaders must confront rising inequalities，perceptions that growth benefits are not shared which feeds into instability and social tensions.
Early this decade，African leaders came forward with a home grown blueprint for the continent.A realization that come 2030，Africa will be aspopu lous as China and India today.We want such an Africa to be prosperous，stable，integrated and taking its proper place in the global community of nations.It is clear that to get to that point，there are preconditions good governance，removing causes of instability，building capable states，and integrating Africa"s fragmented markets.These are issues which only Africans can put in place，and indeed have agreed to "own"and to "fix".